Comerciantes Unidos 1-2 Alianza Universidad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Universidad EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.34/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.06
+4% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -21%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.0 Crosses 15.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Alianza Universidad
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.32 xG 1.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
214 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2025 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad 0-2 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
04.09.2022 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad PERU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
1-2
AWAY Alianza Universidad
1.95 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
281 Passes 235
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 7
46 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Universidad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Universidad nicked a narrow win over Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Comerciantes Unidos at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Comerciantes Unidos had 56% of the ball to Alianza Universidad's 44%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.95 to 0.97 — on chances, Comerciantes Unidos could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Comerciantes Unidos had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.50 for Alianza Universidad.

What was the final score of Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Universidad?

Comerciantes Unidos 1-2 Alianza Universidad in the Peru - Premier League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Universidad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Comerciantes Unidos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Comerciantes Unidos 43%, draw 28%, Alianza Universidad 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Comerciantes Unidos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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