SPAL 2-1 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Sep 2024

SPAL
2-1 HT 2-0
Athletic Carpi
📅23/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2024/2025

SPAL vs Athletic Carpi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
17.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
53%
-13.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

SPAL v Athletic Carpi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 24%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.52/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

SPAL 2-1 Athletic Carpi — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
2-1
AWAY Athletic Carpi
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL squeezed past Athletic Carpi 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; SPAL found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, SPAL had 41% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 59%, shots finished 11-14.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Athletic Carpi?

SPAL 2-1 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Serie C on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split SPAL 40%, draw 29%, Athletic Carpi 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SPAL), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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