AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
34%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.35
No
43%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.95
2-3 Goals
41%
2.18
4-5 Goals
26%
2.47
6+ Goals
14%
4.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.53
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
13%
6.48
X/2
12%
5.88
X/X
9%
6.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
2/2
16%
3.1
2/X
9%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-5.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
70%
-12.7pp
43%
BTTS No
30%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 43%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.32/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.16
+24% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
9.6 Crosses 21.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.02 xG 1.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
364 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 32
8 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
23.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.09.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
04.03.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2-2
AWAY De Graafschap
2.60 xG 1.02
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
512 Passes 208
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II and De Graafschap couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar II at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 67% of the ball to De Graafschap's 33%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.60 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap?

AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 41%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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