De Graafschap 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.97
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
11%
10.7
X/X
8%
6.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.7
2/2
8%
7.19
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.3pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.89/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.54
-17% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
26.7 Crosses 11.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 Passes 348
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.09.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
04.03.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.02.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.22 xG 0.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
251 Passes 383
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap squeezed past AZ Alkmaar II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 44% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 56%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.22 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II?

De Graafschap 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 52%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar II 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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