NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
NAC Breda v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals
NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-4
HT 1-3
NAC Breda
HOL2
1-4
HT 0-3
NAC Breda
HOL2
1-0
HT 1-0
MVV Maastricht
HOL2
4-1
HT 3-1
MVV Maastricht
HOL2
3-1
HT 2-0
NAC Breda
HOL2
1-2
HT 0-1
NAC Breda
HOL2
NAC Breda 1-2 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics
MVV Maastricht squeezed past NAC Breda 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had NAC Breda at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, NAC Breda had 57% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 43%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 1.57 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured NAC Breda.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for MVV Maastricht.
What was the final score of NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht?
NAC Breda 1-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht?
Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 55%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (NAC Breda), BTTS No went the other way.