NAC Breda 1-2 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.76
2-3 Goals
40%
2.04
4-5 Goals
25%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.66
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.05
X/1
15%
3.78
X/2
7%
14.45
X/X
10%
7.67
2/1
10%
19.55
2/2
9%
10.05
2/X
6%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.57/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.89
+0% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.2 Crosses 14.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
5W-0D-1L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.88 xG 1.06
49% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
308 Passes 332
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.11.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-4 HT 1-3 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
27.05.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-4 HT 0-3 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
23.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
10.03.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-1 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
15.08.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
04.03.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-2
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.57 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
447 Passes 326
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 15
35 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht squeezed past NAC Breda 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had NAC Breda at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 57% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 43%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 1.57 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured NAC Breda.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht?

NAC Breda 1-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 55%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (NAC Breda), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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