Junior 3-4 Aguilas Doradas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.45
Over 2.5
38%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+3.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.1pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Junior EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.32/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.00
+14% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
16.2 Crosses 14.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Junior
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.93 xG 1.46
46% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
223 Passes 284
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 0-2 HT 0-1 Junior Junior KOL
30.11.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
26.11.2023 Junior Junior 3-1 HT 1-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
16.07.2023 Junior Junior 0-1 HT 0-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
26.01.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-1 Junior Junior KOL
01.08.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 1-0 Junior Junior KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Junior
3-4
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.57 xG 2.81
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
271 Passes 136
80% Pass Accuracy 63%
19 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Junior vs Aguilas Doradas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas nicked a narrow win over Junior 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Junior at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Junior had 63% of the ball to Aguilas Doradas's 37%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.57 to 2.81 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aguilas Doradas's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Junior had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Junior and 0.83 for Aguilas Doradas.

What was the final score of Junior vs Aguilas Doradas?

Junior 3-4 Aguilas Doradas in the Colombia - Primera on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Junior vs Aguilas Doradas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Junior 44%, draw 29%, Aguilas Doradas 27%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Junior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
23 Sep 2024
02:20 Alianza Petrolera vs America de Cali Analysis →