Marsaxlokk FC 2-4 Mosta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
30%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.3pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsaxlokk FC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mosta EU Bookmakers 23%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.02/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.72
+54% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -23%
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsaxlokk FC
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Mosta
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 1-2 HT 1-1 Mosta Mosta MLTP
28.10.2023 Mosta Mosta 3-2 HT 2-1 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
08.01.2023 Mosta Mosta 2-1 HT 1-1 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
27.08.2022 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 1-4 HT 1-3 Mosta Mosta MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsaxlokk FC
2-4
AWAY Mosta
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mosta beat Marsaxlokk FC 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Marsaxlokk FC at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marsaxlokk FC had 49% of the ball to Mosta's 51%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mosta led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Marsaxlokk FC and 2.75 for Mosta.

What was the final score of Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta?

Marsaxlokk FC 2-4 Mosta in the Malta - Premier League on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsaxlokk FC win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Marsaxlokk FC 47%, draw 27%, Mosta 26%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marsaxlokk FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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