Aurora 1-2 Universitario de Vinto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 23 Oct 2024

Aurora
1-2 HT 0-1
Universitario de Vinto
📅23/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme – 2024

Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aurora v Universitario de Vinto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aurora EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitario de Vinto EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.02/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.79
+20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 71%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
25.7 Crosses 12.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aurora
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Universitario de Vinto
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
247 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto 2-2 HT 1-1 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
30.07.2023 Aurora Aurora 0-1 HT 0-0 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto BOLİ
26.02.2023 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto 1-1 HT 1-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
20.10.2022 Aurora Aurora 0-2 HT 0-2 Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto BOLİ

Aurora 1-2 Universitario de Vinto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aurora
1-2
AWAY Universitario de Vinto
1.02 xG 1.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 4
292 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario de Vinto nicked a narrow win over Aurora 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Aurora at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aurora had 49% of the ball to Universitario de Vinto's 51%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.02 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Universitario de Vinto led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Aurora and 1.50 for Universitario de Vinto.

What was the final score of Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?

Aurora 1-2 Universitario de Vinto in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aurora win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aurora 44%, draw 29%, Universitario de Vinto 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aurora) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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