Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSM Makassar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.2pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY PSM Makassar EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +4%
1.02/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.42
-26% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
1W-1D-2L
AWAY PSM Makassar
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
304 Passes 282
28.02.2024 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar 0-0 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
10.09.2022 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar 3-0 HT 2-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
14.01.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 HT 1-0 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar ENDL1
18.09.2021 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar 3-1 HT 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya and PSM Makassar shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, PSM Makassar led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.75 for PSM Makassar.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?

Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSM Makassar in the Indonesia League 1 on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 37%, draw 27%, PSM Makassar 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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ENDL1 More Indonesia League 1
23 Oct 2024
11:30 Madura United vs PSIS Semarang Analysis →