TPS Turku 3-0 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Oct 2025

📅23/10/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
4.31
6+ Goals
7%
21.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
21%
4.96
1/2
4%
29.0
1/X
4%
13.2
X/1
15%
6.65
X/2
13%
5.12
X/X
18%
4.0
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.29
2/X
4%
12.65
Value flag · 1/1 at 4.96 — our 21% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
30%
+10.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-6.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.23/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
-2% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -60%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.0
Crosses 32.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-2D-2L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
17.07.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-2 HT 0-2 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
18.05.2024 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-4 HT 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
08.10.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FINY
04.07.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
28.04.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
3-0
AWAY KTP Kotka
64% Ball Possession 36%
8 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
427 Passes 346
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku ran out comfortable winners over KTP Kotka 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had TPS Turku as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, TPS Turku had 64% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 36%, shots finished 8-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for TPS Turku and 1.50 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka?

TPS Turku 3-0 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 41%, draw 26%, KTP Kotka 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TPS Turku), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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