Ayr United 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
21%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.76
6+ Goals
12%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.85
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.2
X/1
16%
4.17
X/2
7%
7.09
X/X
11%
4.18
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
9%
5.92
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
47%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.61/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.56
+4% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
365 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
Crosses 5.9
Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Dunfermline Athletic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
31.08.2024 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
02.03.2024 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 2-0 HT 2-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
30.12.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 2-2 HT 1-2 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
21.10.2023 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
16.04.2022 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 2-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
05.02.2022 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-1 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United squeezed past Dunfermline Athletic 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunfermline Athletic led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ayr United and 1.33 for Dunfermline Athletic.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic?

Ayr United 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic in the Scotland - Championship on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 52%, draw 27%, Dunfermline Athletic 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Under 2.5
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