Sestao River 0-1 Barakaldo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
33%
2.88
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.51
Over 2.5
33%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
14%
5.54
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.27 — our 40% vs market 37.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
24%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.9pp
34%
Draw
31%
+2.7pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.2pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.8pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.3pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestao River EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Barakaldo EU Bookmakers 39%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.19/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.10
+4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestao River
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Barakaldo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
07.12.2013 Barakaldo Barakaldo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestao River
0-1
AWAY Barakaldo
43% Ball Possession 57%
4 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sestao River vs Barakaldo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barakaldo edged past Sestao River 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 34% / 36%) promised a tight game; Barakaldo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sestao River had 43% of the ball to Barakaldo's 57%, shots finished 4-10.

What was the final score of Sestao River vs Barakaldo?

Sestao River 0-1 Barakaldo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestao River vs Barakaldo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barakaldo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sestao River 31%, draw 34%, Barakaldo 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barakaldo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barakaldo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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