Muharraq 3-1 Khalidiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
42%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.48
2-3 Goals
48%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 24% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
24%
+11.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-7.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Muharraq EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Khalidiya EU Bookmakers 55%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.81/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.54/0.27
-24% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
229 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Muharraq
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Khalidiya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2024 Khalidiya Khalidiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Muharraq Muharraq BAH
26.02.2024 Muharraq Muharraq 1-0 HT 0-0 Khalidiya Khalidiya BAHKK
29.09.2023 Muharraq Muharraq 1-1 HT 0-0 Khalidiya Khalidiya BAH
19.02.2023 Khalidiya Khalidiya 2-0 HT 1-0 Muharraq Muharraq BAH
26.12.2022 Muharraq Muharraq 1-1 HT 1-0 Khalidiya Khalidiya BAH
20.01.2022 Khalidiya Khalidiya 1-0 HT 0-0 Muharraq Muharraq BAH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Muharraq
3-1
AWAY Khalidiya
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Muharraq vs Khalidiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Muharraq got the better of Khalidiya 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Khalidiya at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Muharraq had 43% of the ball to Khalidiya's 57%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Khalidiya led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Muharraq and 0.83 for Khalidiya.

What was the final score of Muharraq vs Khalidiya?

Muharraq 3-1 Khalidiya in the Bahrain - Premier League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Muharraq vs Khalidiya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Khalidiya win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Muharraq 35%, draw 23%, Khalidiya 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Khalidiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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