Genk 3-0 Sporting Charleroi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.05
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
12%
3.97
X/2
9%
10.95
X/X
11%
5.71
2/1
6%
22.1
2/2
12%
8.22
2/X EV+ ✗
8%
15.95
Value flag · 2/X at 15.95 — our 8% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.18/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.82
+10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +19%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
456 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
18.1 Crosses 13.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.04 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
414 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2023 Genk Genk 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.04.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-2 HT 1-2 Genk Genk BEL
04.11.2022 Genk Genk 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
10.05.2022 Genk Genk 3-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
06.05.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-2 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
3-0
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
2.21 xG 1.18
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
454 Passes 277
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Genk vs Sporting Charleroi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk ran out comfortable winners over Sporting Charleroi 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Genk had 60% of the ball to Sporting Charleroi's 40%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.21 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Genk and 1.17 for Sporting Charleroi.

What was the final score of Genk vs Sporting Charleroi?

Genk 3-0 Sporting Charleroi in the Belgium - Pro League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Sporting Charleroi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Genk 48%, draw 26%, Sporting Charleroi 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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