Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 Nov 2024

Lechia Gdansk
0-3 HT 0-2
Pogon Szczecin
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.49
2-3 Goals
44%
1.91
4-5 Goals
20%
2.96
6+ Goals
9%
8.72
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 27% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.4
1/2
5%
22.1
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
12%
7.96
X/2 EV+ ✗
22%
4.58
X/X
11%
5.63
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.51
2/X
6%
13.55
Value flag · X/2 at 4.58 — our 22% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.4pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.08/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.00
-21% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.4
17.8 Crosses 18.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.08 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
316 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.04.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
01.10.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 2-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
14.05.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.11.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-1 HT 2-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
19.03.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
19.10.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0-3
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.99 xG 2.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
424 Passes 316
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 24
35 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin cruised past Lechia Gdansk 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 57% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 43%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 0.99 to 2.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.67 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?

Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 28%, draw 25%, Pogon Szczecin 47%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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