Legia Varşova 3-2 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 Nov 2024

Legia Varşova
3-2 HT 3-1
Cracovia Krakow
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Legia Varşova vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.03
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.95
X/1
17%
3.88
X/2
10%
10.65
X/X
18%
5.85
2/1
8%
22.1
2/2
8%
8.09
2/X
7%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.7pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.2pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Legia Varşova v Cracovia Krakow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +18%
1.98/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.44
+22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
23.3 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Legia Varşova vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.61 xG 1.16
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
430 Passes 194
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
17.12.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
12.02.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 0-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
29.07.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 3-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
21.05.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
05.12.2021 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Legia Varşova 3-2 Cracovia Krakow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
3-2
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.36 xG 2.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
380 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova nicked a narrow win over Cracovia Krakow 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 55% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 45%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.36 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Cracovia Krakow?

Legia Varşova 3-2 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 46%, draw 29%, Cracovia Krakow 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5
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