Domzale 2-1 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
18.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 34% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Domzale EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 34%
-15% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.11/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.00
-13% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Domzale
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Nafta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 4
30.08.2024 Nafta Nafta 5-2 HT 2-2 Domzale Domzale SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Domzale
2-1
AWAY Nafta
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Domzale vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Domzale edged past Nafta 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Domzale made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Domzale had 59% of the ball to Nafta's 41%, shots finished 13-10.

What was the final score of Domzale vs Nafta?

Domzale 2-1 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Domzale vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Domzale win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Domzale 38%, draw 28%, Nafta 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Domzale) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Domzale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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