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Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix (K) edged past Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory (K) at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 38% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 62%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 1.24 to 1.43.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 2.33 for Melbourne Victory (K).
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?
Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 27%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory (K) 48%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.