Fiorentina 1-2 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 23 Dec 2024

Fiorentina
1-2 HT 1-0
Udinese
📅23/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Fiorentina vs Udinese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.04
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
15%
3.88
X/2
8%
10.95
X/X
10%
5.49
2/1
10%
23.0
2/2
6%
8.54
2/X
10%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.2pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Udinese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.76/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.72
-4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
23.7 Crosses 14.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Fiorentina vs Udinese Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Udinese
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 1.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
430 Passes 252
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
24.09.2023 Udinese Udinese 0-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
14.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
31.08.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.04.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-4 HT 0-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
26.09.2021 Udinese Udinese 0-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA

Fiorentina 1-2 Udinese — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-2
AWAY Udinese
2.15 xG 0.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
306 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
29 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese squeezed past Fiorentina 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 51% of the ball to Udinese's 49%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.15 to 0.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Fiorentina.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fiorentina and 1.17 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Udinese?

Fiorentina 1-2 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 49%, draw 27%, Udinese 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fiorentina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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