Macarthur 1-1 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 23 Dec 2024

Macarthur
1-1 HT 1-0
Central Coast Mariners
📅23/12/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
9.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.6
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
7.89
X/X
10%
5.36
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
14%
5.43
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · X/2 at 7.89 — our 16% vs market 9.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.1pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
2.46/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.45
+40% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
19.5 Crosses 14.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.07 xG 2.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 8
313 Passes 372
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 39
23 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
22.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 2-3 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AFCC
29.10.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
11.03.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 4-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
13.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.11.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 1-1 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-1
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
2.07 xG 0.56
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
283 Passes 487
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Central Coast Mariners couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Macarthur had 39% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 61%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 2.07 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Macarthur and 2.50 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?

Macarthur 1-1 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 41%, draw 23%, Central Coast Mariners 36%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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