Ajax II 3-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Dec 2024

Ajax II
3-1 HT 2-1
Roda
📅23/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Ajax II vs Roda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.54
6+ Goals
13%
6.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.17
1/2
7%
22.1
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.55
X/1
9%
6.97
X/2
17%
5.38
X/X
11%
5.82
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
15%
2.91
2/X
5%
12.4
Value flag · 1/X at 12.55 — our 13% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.4pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax II v Roda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -24%
1.54/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
+36% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
10.1 Crosses 20.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Ajax II vs Roda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Roda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.72 xG 1.86
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
395 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.10.2024 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
26.04.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
27.10.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
23.01.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
12.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
08.04.2022 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2

Ajax II 3-1 Roda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
3-1
AWAY Roda
1.50 xG 1.47
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
313 Passes 340
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II saw off Roda 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Ajax II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ajax II had 47% of the ball to Roda's 53%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.50 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ajax II and 1.67 for Roda.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs Roda?

Ajax II 3-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 31%, draw 28%, Roda 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ BTTS Yes
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