Roda 2-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Oct 2024

Roda
2-1 HT 1-0
Ajax II
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.87
2-3 Goals
41%
2.05
4-5 Goals
26%
2.59
6+ Goals
11%
5.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.73
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.0
X/1
16%
3.88
X/2
8%
13.4
X/X
9%
7.43
2/1
9%
19.4
2/2
8%
9.13
2/X
7%
17.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-14.3pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.3pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.68/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.81
-13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.8 Crosses 11.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.90 xG 1.00
43% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
280 Passes 428
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
27.10.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
23.01.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
12.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
08.04.2022 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.11.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
2-1
AWAY Ajax II
1.69 xG 0.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
368 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Roda vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda nicked a narrow win over Ajax II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Roda had 53% of the ball to Ajax II's 47%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.69 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roda's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 1.17 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Roda vs Ajax II?

Roda 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Roda 51%, draw 24%, Ajax II 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
25 Oct 2024
21:00 FC Oss vs AZ Alkmaar II Analysis →
21:00 Vitesse vs PSV II Analysis →
21:00 Dordrecht vs Utrecht II Analysis →
21:00 Volendam vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →
21:00 ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap Analysis →
21:00 VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch Analysis →