ADO Den Haag 1-2 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.6
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.45
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
12%
4.78
X/2
6%
8.01
X/X
10%
6.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
20.5
2/2
19%
5.0
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.5 — our 14% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.6pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
1.51/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.44
+3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
21.6 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
3W-3D-0L
AWAY De Graafschap
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
252 Passes 350
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 2-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.05.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-3 HT 1-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
12.01.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 5-3 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.04.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.10.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
1-2
AWAY De Graafschap
1.47 xG 1.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 10
259 Passes 266
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over ADO Den Haag 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 49% of the ball to De Graafschap's 51%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 1.47 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.50 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?

ADO Den Haag 1-2 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 47%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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