Dungannon Swifts 0-1 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 23 Dec 2024

📅23/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
7%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 35% vs market 30.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.99
1/2
10%
28.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
11%
7.43
X/2
20%
4.25
X/X
15%
4.34
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
2.75
2/X
7%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+4.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 51%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.30/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.83
+4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +55%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
235 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dungannon Swifts
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Larne FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 0-3 HT 0-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
20.01.2024 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-2 HT 0-2 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
13.10.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-0 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
07.08.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 4-4 HT 1-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
14.02.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-3 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
18.11.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
POST-MATCH Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC edged past Dungannon Swifts 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dungannon Swifts and 1.83 for Larne FC.

What was the final score of Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC?

Dungannon Swifts 0-1 Larne FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dungannon Swifts vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Dungannon Swifts 30%, draw 29%, Larne FC 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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