Zambiya 0-1 Fas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 24 Jan 2024

Zambiya
0-1 HT 0-1
Fas
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Afrika Uluslar Cup – 2023

Zambiya vs Fas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.34
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
46%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
10.2
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
7%
18.65
X/1
10%
11.5
X/2
16%
3.49
X/X
14%
4.77
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
25%
1.98
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+10.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
46%
Away Win
59%
-13.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.0pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zambiya v Fas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zambiya EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Fas EU Bookmakers 62%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.79/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/2.09
+150% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 81%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.0 Crosses 31.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.0

Zambiya vs Fas Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zambiya
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.59 xG 2.13
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
217 Passes 434
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
6 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
31.01.2021 Fas Fas 3-1 HT 3-0 Zambiya Zambiya AUŞ
16.06.2019 Fas Fas 2-3 HT 1-2 Zambiya Zambiya HAZ

Zambiya 0-1 Fas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zambiya
0-1
AWAY Fas
0.45 xG 2.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
300 Passes 437
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 32
7 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zambiya vs Fas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fas squeezed past Zambiya 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fas as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Zambiya had 42% of the ball to Fas's 58%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.45 to 2.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fas's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Zambiya and 2.50 for Fas.

What was the final score of Zambiya vs Fas?

Zambiya 0-1 Fas in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zambiya vs Fas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Zambiya 26%, draw 28%, Fas 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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