Başakşehir FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
54%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.96
2-3 Goals
46%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
7%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.21
1/2
7%
21.75
1/X
10%
17.5
X/1
9%
11.85
X/2
23%
3.67
X/X
9%
5.98
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
24%
1.86
2/X
4%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+6.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.3pp
54%
Away Win
62%
-7.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 66%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
0.91/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.33/1.04
+29% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
252 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.7
9.2 Crosses 21.3
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.68 xG 1.70
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 430
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 3-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.06.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TÜK
19.04.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-2 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
22.10.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
05.02.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
19.09.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
0-1
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.57 xG 3.03
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 28
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
197 Passes 505
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
4 Box Touches 72
9 Crosses 32
7 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe nicked a narrow win over Başakşehir FK 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 34% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 66%, shots finished 4-28, expected goals 0.57 to 3.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.50 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Başakşehir FK 0-1 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 23%, draw 23%, Fenerbahçe 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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