Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Jan 2025

Newport County
1-2 HT 1-1
Swindon Town
📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Newport County vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
38%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.64
1/2
6%
23.4
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
9%
7.56
X/2
16%
4.61
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.63
2/X
5%
13.3
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.64 — our 23% vs market 13.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
26%
+10.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
48%
-10.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.21/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.13
-14% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
224 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 75%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
17.2 Crosses 18.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Newport County vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Swindon Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 1.31
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
215 Passes 345
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 4-0 HT 4-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
03.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
14.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.02.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.10.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
09.04.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-2
AWAY Swindon Town
0.82 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
239 Passes 202
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
11 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town squeezed past Newport County 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Swindon Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Newport County had 53% of the ball to Swindon Town's 47%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.82 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newport County and 1.50 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Newport County 37%, draw 24%, Swindon Town 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swindon Town) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Under 2.5
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