Newport County 2-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 3 Feb 2024

Newport County
2-1 HT 0-0
Swindon Town
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.6
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.84
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
16%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.56
X/2
14%
6.86
X/X
8%
4.59
2/1
11%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.04
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 1/X at 13.25 — our 16% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.43/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.49
+5% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
256 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 72%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.6 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Newport County vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Swindon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 1.02
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
225 Passes 378
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.02.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.10.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
09.04.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
20.11.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
09.11.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İNTK

Newport County 2-1 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
2-1
AWAY Swindon Town
1.32 xG 1.97
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
190 Passes 238
62% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Newport County found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Newport County had 47% of the ball to Swindon Town's 53%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.32 to 1.97 — on chances, Swindon Town could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newport County and 1.17 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Newport County 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Newport County 38%, draw 29%, Swindon Town 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newport County), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newport County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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