Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

Swindon Town
4-0 HT 4-0
Newport County
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Swindon Town vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 28% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.02
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.0
X/1
14%
3.97
X/2
14%
10.45
X/X
10%
5.82
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
7%
7.68
2/X
6%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.61/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.40
+2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 69%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
23.2 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Swindon Town vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Newport County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 1.23
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
355 Passes 209
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
14.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.02.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.10.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
09.04.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
20.11.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2

Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
4-0
AWAY Newport County
1.79 xG 0.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 1
322 Passes 332
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 7
27 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town cruised past Newport County 4-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Swindon Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 50% of the ball to Newport County's 50%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.79 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Swindon Town and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Newport County?

Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 47%, draw 24%, Newport County 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swindon Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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