Carlisle United 2-3 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

Carlisle United
2-3 HT 1-2
Fleetwood Town
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Fleetwood Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.29
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 31% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.58
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
8%
5.36
X/2
10%
5.63
X/X
15%
4.6
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
17%
3.85
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.9pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Fleetwood Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.23/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/3.15
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
243 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 71%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
19.1 Crosses 10.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.0

Carlisle United vs Fleetwood Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.38 xG 1.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
260 Passes 334
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.12.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
05.08.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
20.09.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK
01.09.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK
20.07.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town HAZ
08.11.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-2 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK

Carlisle United 2-3 Fleetwood Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
2-3
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.43 xG 1.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
396 Passes 220
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fleetwood Town nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Fleetwood Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carlisle United had 60% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 40%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.43 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fleetwood Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlisle United and 1.83 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Fleetwood Town?

Carlisle United 2-3 Fleetwood Town in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 40%, draw 28%, Fleetwood Town 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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