AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

AFC Wimbledon
3-0 HT 1-0
Milton Keynes Dons
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.22
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
8%
4.87
X/2
12%
6.06
X/X
12%
4.58
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
4.37
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -20%
1.33/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.31
+5% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 68%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
19.3 Crosses 17.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.62 xG 1.36
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
199 Passes 498
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
23.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 3-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
09.04.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
11.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
30.01.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
31.10.2020 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1

AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
3-0
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.80 xG 1.10
26% Ball Possession 74%
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
127 Passes 535
56% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 15
8 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon ran out comfortable winners over Milton Keynes Dons 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 26% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 74%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.80 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 42%, draw 27%, Milton Keynes Dons 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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