Grimsby Town 1-2 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.28
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
17%
4.83
X/2
15%
5.86
X/X
11%
4.62
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
11%
4.29
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.4pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.32/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.36
-10% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 65%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
21.2 Crosses 19.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Barrow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.80 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
255 Passes 219
67% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2024 Barrow Barrow 3-1 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
03.10.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
18.04.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
25.10.2022 Barrow Barrow 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
23.03.2021 Barrow Barrow 0-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
03.11.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
1-2
AWAY Barrow
0.84 xG 1.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
351 Passes 175
78% Pass Accuracy 65%
33 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow nicked a narrow win over Grimsby Town 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Grimsby Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 62% of the ball to Barrow's 38%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.84 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grimsby Town and 0.83 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Barrow?

Grimsby Town 1-2 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 44%, draw 24%, Barrow 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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