Barrow 3-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.95
No
63%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 37% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.58
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
20%
4.02
X/2
8%
7.67
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
10%
6.29
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.9pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.7pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 28%
+8% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.20/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.35
-10% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
246 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 69%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.5 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Grimsby Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
225 Passes 248
64% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
18.04.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
25.10.2022 Barrow Barrow 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
23.03.2021 Barrow Barrow 0-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
03.11.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
10.11.2015 Barrow Barrow 1-3 HT 1-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
3-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.45 xG 0.56
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 7
193 Passes 286
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow beat Grimsby Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barrow as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barrow had 43% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 57%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.45 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Barrow and 1.33 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Grimsby Town?

Barrow 3-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Barrow 50%, draw 27%, Grimsby Town 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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