Swindon Town 2-1 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2024

Swindon Town
2-1 HT 1-0
Notts County
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.89
Over 2.5
53%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.35
No
46%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.72
2-3 Goals
40%
2.15
4-5 Goals
25%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.99
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
5%
12.15
X/1
16%
5.72
X/2
9%
6.67
X/X
10%
6.23
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
20%
3.7
2/X
9%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
31%
+15.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
69%
-15.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
70%
-16.0pp
46%
BTTS No
30%
+16.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.30/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.98
+11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 80%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
19.4 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Swindon Town vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.70 xG 2.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
433 Passes 388
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.10.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.05.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.10.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
30.12.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
12.09.2017 Notts County Notts County 1-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
07.03.2015 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1

Swindon Town 2-1 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
2-1
AWAY Notts County
1.35 xG 1.01
25% Ball Possession 75%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
145 Passes 629
65% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town nicked a narrow win over Notts County 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Swindon Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 25% of the ball to Notts County's 75%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.35 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Swindon Town and 1.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Notts County?

Swindon Town 2-1 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 40%, draw 24%, Notts County 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swindon Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
29 Mar 2024
18:00 Milton Keynes Dons vs Walsall Analysis →
18:00 Bradford City vs Tranmere Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Salford City vs Sutton United Analysis →
18:00 Crawley Town vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →
18:00 AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town Analysis →
18:00 Wrexham vs Mansfield Town Analysis →