AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 2 Mar 2024

AFC Wimbledon
1-0 HT 0-0
Milton Keynes Dons
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
26%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.48
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
13%
5.32
X/2
12%
5.82
X/X
11%
4.6
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
21%
3.96
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.27/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.23
-7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 71%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
20.3 Crosses 17.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 1.40
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
210 Passes 492
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 3-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
09.04.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
11.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
30.01.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
31.10.2020 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
07.09.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 2-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.80 xG 0.65
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
161 Passes 408
64% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 10
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon squeezed past Milton Keynes Dons 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; AFC Wimbledon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 35% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 65%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.80 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.67 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 37%, draw 24%, Milton Keynes Dons 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ BTTS No
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