Crewe Alexandra 2-3 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 2 Mar 2024

Crewe Alexandra
2-3 HT 1-0
Morecambe
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
35%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.54
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.21
X/2
12%
7.79
X/X
10%
4.76
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
18%
5.97
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
35%
Away Win
24%
+10.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crewe Alexandra v Morecambe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 28%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +19%
1.10/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.64
+13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 66%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
22.6 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Morecambe
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.00 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
382 Passes 194
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.12.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
21.09.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-3 HT 0-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
29.02.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
23.11.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 5-0 HT 3-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
05.01.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 2-2 HT 0-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
04.08.2018 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 6-0 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Crewe Alexandra 2-3 Morecambe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
2-3
AWAY Morecambe
2.47 xG 1.26
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 0
359 Passes 157
77% Pass Accuracy 60%
30 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe edged past Crewe Alexandra 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Crewe Alexandra at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 64% of the ball to Morecambe's 36%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.47 to 1.26 — on chances, Crewe Alexandra could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 1.17 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe?

Crewe Alexandra 2-3 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 41%, draw 24%, Morecambe 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Crewe Alexandra), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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