Swindon Town 1-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 26% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.26
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
17%
4.19
X/2
6%
8.83
X/X
10%
5.62
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
14%
6.3
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +21%
1.66/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.32
+17% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
338 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 69%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.6 Crosses 14.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.54 xG 1.31
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
370 Passes 243
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.11.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
25.02.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
30.07.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
15.04.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-4 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
27.11.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.42 xG 0.96
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 5
432 Passes 224
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
37 Box Touches 23
36 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town and Harrogate Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 62% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 38%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.42 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Swindon Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Swindon Town and 1.20 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Harrogate Town?

Swindon Town 1-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 46%, draw 27%, Harrogate Town 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Swindon Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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