Lucchese 2-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
32%
2.77
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.56
Over
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.33
2-3
40%
1.72
4-5
22%
4.56
6+
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.4pp
32%
Draw
33%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli The Market 40%
-5% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.13/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.34
+3% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ascoli
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
22.09.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 1-2 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
08.03.2015 Ascoli Ascoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
2-1
AWAY Ascoli
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese edged past Ascoli 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Lucchese made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucchese had 50% of the ball to Ascoli's 50%, shots finished 13-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lucchese and 2.00 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs Ascoli?

Lucchese 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie C on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 36%, draw 32%, Ascoli 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lucchese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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