Ascoli 1-2 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ascoli EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 24%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.40/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.20
-11% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ascoli
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lucchese
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 7
08.03.2015 Ascoli Ascoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ascoli
1-2
AWAY Lucchese
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ascoli vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese nicked a narrow win over Ascoli 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ascoli at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Ascoli had 48% of the ball to Lucchese's 52%, shots finished 9-15.

What was the final score of Ascoli vs Lucchese?

Ascoli 1-2 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ascoli vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ascoli 45%, draw 27%, Lucchese 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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