Auxerre 1-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 24 Jan 2025

Auxerre
1-1 HT 1-1
Saint-Etienne
📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
1.86
Over Pick
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.18
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5 ✗
26%
3.47
6+
12%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.47 — our 26% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.58
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.54
X/2
11%
7.84
X/X
15%
4.74
2/1 ✗
12%
24.3
2/2
12%
6.0
2/X
5%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.2pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne The Market 29%
+12% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
0.77/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.56
-29% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
15.2 Crosses 18.3
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
410 Passes 360
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 3-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
09.03.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
11.11.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 5-2 HT 3-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
29.05.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
26.05.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
01.02.2017 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FRK

Auxerre 1-1 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.84 xG 1.17
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
266 Passes 513
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre and Saint-Etienne couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Auxerre at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Auxerre had 37% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 63%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.84 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saint-Etienne led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Auxerre and 1.33 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne?

Auxerre 1-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 46%, draw 26%, Saint-Etienne 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Auxerre), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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