Saint-Etienne 3-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Oct 2024

Saint-Etienne
3-1 HT 1-0
Auxerre
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.29
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
14%
6.35
X/2
10%
5.19
X/X
8%
4.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
31.0
2/2
20%
3.22
2/X
11%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -18%
1.00/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/2.76
-9% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -61%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
20.4 Crosses 14.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.0

Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Auxerre
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.66 xG 1.04
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
389 Passes 416
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.03.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
11.11.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 5-2 HT 3-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
29.05.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
26.05.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
01.02.2017 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FRK
25.02.2012 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1

Saint-Etienne 3-1 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
3-1
AWAY Auxerre
2.73 xG 0.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
273 Passes 391
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne beat Auxerre 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Saint-Etienne found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 41% of the ball to Auxerre's 59%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.73 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.17 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre?

Saint-Etienne 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 38%, draw 24%, Auxerre 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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