Lille 2-1 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Oct 2024

Lille
2-1 HT 0-1
Toulouse
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.64
6+ Goals
12%
14.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 24% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.33
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
19%
3.98
X/2
13%
8.56
X/X
11%
4.96
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
13%
6.71
2/X
9%
15.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
53%
-11.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+10.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.73/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.74
-3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.6 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lille vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Toulouse
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 1.40
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
453 Passes 300
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 3-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
12.11.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.03.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
17.09.2022 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
22.02.2020 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.10.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1

Lille 2-1 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
2-1
AWAY Toulouse
1.61 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
449 Passes 311
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lille vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille nicked a narrow win over Toulouse 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Lille had 58% of the ball to Toulouse's 42%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.61 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lille and 1.17 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Lille vs Toulouse?

Lille 2-1 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lille 41%, draw 26%, Toulouse 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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