Toulouse 3-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
35%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.78
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 31% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.54
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
7.29
X/2
13%
4.41
X/X
17%
4.5
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.74
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · X/1 at 7.29 — our 16% vs market 9.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+6.2pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.7pp
35%
Away Win
46%
-10.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 50%
-16% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.51/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.19
-24% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
21.7 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lille
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 1.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
312 Passes 413
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.03.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
17.09.2022 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
22.02.2020 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.10.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
21.04.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
3-1
AWAY Lille
2.16 xG 0.59
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
217 Passes 562
76% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse beat Lille 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 32% / 35% — and on the day Toulouse made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toulouse had 32% of the ball to Lille's 68%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 2.16 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Toulouse and 1.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Lille?

Toulouse 3-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 33%, draw 32%, Lille 35%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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