Marsilya 4-1 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Feb 2024

Marsilya
4-1 HT 2-1
Montpellier
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Marsilya vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
13%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.15
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
19%
4.0
X/2
6%
9.6
X/X
10%
5.43
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
8%
7.19
2/X
6%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
56%
+3.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.3pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.69/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.65
+2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.5 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Marsilya vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Montpellier
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.88 xG 0.75
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
508 Passes 243
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
31.03.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
02.01.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.04.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
29.01.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FRK
08.08.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-3 HT 2-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 4-1 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
4-1
AWAY Montpellier
2.66 xG 0.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
396 Passes 267
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya swept aside Montpellier 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Marsilya had 58% of the ball to Montpellier's 42%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.66 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 1.00 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Montpellier?

Marsilya 4-1 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 59%, draw 22%, Montpellier 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ BTTS No
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