Lens 2-3 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Feb 2024

Lens
2-3 HT 1-2
Monaco
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 25% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.12
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
10%
12.65
X/1
19%
5.14
X/2
15%
6.38
X/X
6%
4.95
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
4.23
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +12%
1.45/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.64
+9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.0 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Monaco
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.84 xG 1.51
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
472 Passes 312
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.01.2024 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FRK
02.09.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-0 HT 2-0 Lens Lens FR1
22.04.2023 Lens Lens 3-0 HT 2-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
20.08.2022 Monaco Monaco 1-4 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
21.05.2022 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
30.01.2022 Lens Lens 2-4 HT 1-3 Monaco Monaco FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
2-3
AWAY Monaco
2.92 xG 2.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 3
436 Passes 273
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
43 Box Touches 23
31 Crosses 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lens vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco edged past Lens 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lens had 59% of the ball to Monaco's 41%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 2.92 to 2.29 — on chances, Lens could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Lens and 2.00 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Lens vs Monaco?

Lens 2-3 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lens 42%, draw 24%, Monaco 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5
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