Osijek 2-2 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 24 Jan 2025

📅24/01/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.9pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
1.61/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.46
-2% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +35%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
24.4 Crosses 13.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sibenik
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.57 xG 0.66
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
364 Passes 234
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 1-3 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
04.08.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 0-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
19.05.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 1-4 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
13.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.09.2022 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
2-2
AWAY Sibenik
0.52 xG 2.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
351 Passes 228
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek and Sibenik shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Osijek at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Osijek had 58% of the ball to Sibenik's 42%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.52 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Osijek and 0.83 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Sibenik?

Osijek 2-2 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Osijek 55%, draw 24%, Sibenik 21%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Osijek) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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