Arouca 1-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 24 Jan 2025

Arouca
1-0 HT 0-0
Moreirense
📅24/01/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.54
Over
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.3
2-3
38%
1.75
4-5
20%
4.89
6+
9%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.41
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
15%
4.85
X/2
15%
6.19
X/X
9%
3.76
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
15%
4.95
2/X ✗
12%
14.45
Value flag · 2/X at 14.45 — our 12% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.3pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
1.38/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.11
+6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.6 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Arouca vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Moreirense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.57
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
437 Passes 237
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 3-1 HT 2-1 Arouca Arouca POR
17.03.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
27.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
22.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca PORLC
26.02.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
25.09.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Arouca 1-0 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-0
AWAY Moreirense
0.59 xG 0.55
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
337 Passes 350
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over Moreirense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arouca had 50% of the ball to Moreirense's 50%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 0.59 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arouca and 1.50 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Moreirense?

Arouca 1-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Arouca 35%, draw 28%, Moreirense 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Moreirense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Moreirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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