Moreirense 1-0 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Mar 2024

Moreirense
1-0 HT 1-0
Arouca
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Moreirense vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.58
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.07
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
14%
4.42
X/2
10%
6.43
X/X
13%
4.1
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
18%
5.16
2/X
6%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.41/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.33
+4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.9 Crosses 17.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9

Moreirense vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 1.10
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
224 Passes 368
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
22.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca PORLC
26.02.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
25.09.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
30.04.2017 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
17.12.2016 Moreirense Moreirense 1-4 HT 0-2 Arouca Arouca POR

Moreirense 1-0 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
1-0
AWAY Arouca
0.84 xG 0.34
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
290 Passes 484
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense edged past Arouca 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Moreirense had 39% of the ball to Arouca's 61%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.84 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreirense and 1.67 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Arouca?

Moreirense 1-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 37%, draw 28%, Arouca 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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