Chaves 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.79
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.19
6+ Goals
10%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.95
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
14%
7.46
X/2
17%
4.25
X/X
18%
4.26
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.7
2/X
4%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+3.1pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 51%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.22/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.88
+8% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 76%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
22.4 Crosses 22.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.18 xG 2.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
315 Passes 333
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 5-0 HT 3-0 Chaves Chaves POR
30.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
07.08.2022 Chaves Chaves 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
06.04.2019 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 HT 3-0 Chaves Chaves POR
02.12.2018 Chaves Chaves 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
12.01.2018 Chaves Chaves 4-3 HT 3-3 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
1-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.79 xG 1.72
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
349 Passes 287
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Chaves 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 31% / 40% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chaves had 53% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 47%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.79 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chaves and 2.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Chaves 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chaves 29%, draw 31%, Vitoria Guimaraes 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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