Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Casa Pia
POR
3-0
HT 2-0
Casa Pia
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica squeezed past Casa Pia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Casa Pia had 32% of the ball to Benfica's 68%, shots finished 6-21, expected goals 0.47 to 1.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Casa Pia and 1.67 for Benfica.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 17%, draw 23%, Benfica 59%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.